Stochastic Modelling and Simulation of SIR Model for COVID-2019 Epidemic Outbreak in India

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan city, China, at the end of December 2019. As of July 26, 2020, 16258353 COVID-19 cases were confirmed worldwide, including  649848 deaths. The spread of COVID-19 is currently very high. Under the classical SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model, epidemiological data for India up to 26th July 2020 were used to forecast the COVID-19 outbreak. For controlling the spreading of the virus, we have to prepare for precaution and futuristic calculation for infection spreading. We used the data from the COVID-2019 Outbreak of India on July 26th, 2020 in this report. In these results, for the initial level of experimental intent, we used 16291331 susceptible cases, 481248 infectious cases, and 910298 rewards / removed cases. Through the aid of the SIR model, data on a wide range of infectious diseases have been analyzed.  SIR model is one of the most effective models which can predict the spreading rate of the virus. We have validated the model with the current spreading rate with this SIR model. The findings of the SIR model can be used to forecast transmission and avoid the outbreak of COVID-2019 in India. The results of the study will shed light on understanding the outbreak patterns and indicate those regions' epidemiological points. Finally, from this study, we have found that the outbreak of the COVID-2019 epidemic in India will be at its peak on 09 August 2020 and after that, it will work slowly and on the verge of ending in the second or third week of November 2020.