COVID-19: Finding the End Day

Abstract

The study has pivoted on finding a methodology to forecast the end day of the menace of Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) or such pandemic that the planet faces on and often, challenging the core of the civilization. This model has resort to an indirect method to find the end day. As the pandemic grows exponentially, the rate of growth of total cases over previous day reduces asymptotically with herd immunity gaining strength to strength. Instead of finding flat head of the exponential expansion path, the model has looked into close to zero value of daily growth rate to find the end day. ARIMA (p,q,r) model for data smoothing and exponential trend line methodology adopted to find the end day. COVID-19 data for 63 days from March 20, 2020 to May 21, 2020 for seven countries and the globe explored with the proposed methodology. The study has projected toll of COVID-19 using a continuous constant exponential growth/decay model. The end day of the pandemic is projected for the globe when the expansion of the disease would be 0.01% per day. The methodology can be improved further by inclusion of other parameters of social and virology implications.