COVID-19: Finding the End Day
The study has pivoted on finding a methodology to forecast the end day of the menace of Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) or such pandemic that the planet faces on and often, challenging the core of the civilization. This model has resort to an indirect method to find the end day. As the pandemic grows exponentially, the rate of growth of total cases over previous day reduces asymptotically with herd immunity gaining strength to strength. Instead of finding flat head of the exponential expansion path, the model has looked into close to zero value of daily growth rate to find the end day. ARIMA (p,q,r) model for data smoothing and exponential trend line methodology adopted to find the end day. COVID-19 data for 63 days from March 20, 2020 to May 21, 2020 for seven countries and the globe explored with the proposed methodology. The study has projected toll of COVID-19 using a continuous constant exponential growth/decay model. The end day of the pandemic is projected for the globe when the expansion of the disease would be 0.01% per day. The methodology can be improved further by inclusion of other parameters of social and virology implications.
Keywords:ARIMA(p,q,r), Exponential, Forecast, Trend
COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/,
UNICEF, Effects of Social Distancing Measures, https://www.unicef.org/innovation/magicbox/covid
Paital B, Das K, Parida SK, Inter nation social lockdown versus medical care against COVID-19, a mild environmental insight with special reference to India, Science of The Total Environment Volume 728, 1 August 2020, 138914, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720324311
Petropoulos F, Makridakis S (2020), Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19. PLoS ONE 15(3): e0231236. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0231236
Suárez, VJC, Hormeño-Holgado AJ, Jiménez M, Tornero-Aguilera, JF, Dynamics of Population Immunity Due to the Herd Effect in the COVID-19 Pandemic, Vaccines 8(2):236 May 2020. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341481389_Dynamics_of_Population_Immunity_Due_to_the_Herd_Effect_in_the_COVID-19_Pandemic.
Wikipedia 1918 flu pandemic in India, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic_in_India,
Taylor JW, Exponential smoothing with a damped multiplicative trend. International Journal of Forecasting, 2003;19(4):715–725, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207003000037
Fattah J, Ezzine L, Aman Z, Moussami H E, Forecasting of demand using ARIMA model, International Journal of Engineering Business Management 10(2):184797901880867· October 2018.
Copyright (c) 2020 Sandip Chatterjee
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Any non-commercial use, distribution, adaptation, and reproduction in any medium is permitted as long as the original work is properly cited. However, caution and responsibility are required when reusing as the articles on the preprint server are not peer-reviewed. Readers are advised to check for the availability of any updated or peer-reviewed version.