Preprint / Version 1

COVID-19 – Role of Government Intervention




The ravage of COVID-19 has remained unprecedented in the history of human civilization. The pandemic has bewildered the governments across the nations amidst the twin edge blade of economic stringency or unabated growth of the disease. The study has attempted to find the efficacy of GovernmentIntervention (GI) incombating the forces of the pandemic. Ithas pooled historical data of victims of 13 most affected countries after smoothening the data with ARIMA(p,q,r) technique to formulate an exponential model for its spread. The model considers six explanatory variables including GI to understand the dynamics of the disease. The historical data of the countries pooled across continents to have six groups. While variance inflation factorused for detecting multicollinearity, multivariate regression model adopted to determine the association between the explanatory variables and COVID-19 growth. The study pivoted on finding the role of GI, looking at its association with COVID-19 spread. Comparability analysis of the coefficient of GI conducted across the models to find the intensity across the continents. The study finds GI an effective instrument in the continents of America (North), America (South) and Asia, conducive for buying time for herd immunity and invention of vaccine and/or medicine.


ARIMA(p,q,r,), Multicillinearity, Regression.


Download data is not yet available.


Maniktala, P., Diluting Federalism InThe Fight Against COVID-19 Pandemic, The Outlook, May 23, 2020,

Herszenhorn D M, Democracy in Critical Care as Coronavirus Disrupts Governments,Politico (European edition), 24 March, 2020,

Deccan Chronicle, Governments across globe under pressure to control covid19 economic damage, May 26, 2020

Suárez, VJC, Hormeño-Holgado AJ, Jiménez M, Tornero-Aguilera, JF, Dynamics of Population Immunity Due to the Herd Effect in the COVID-19 Pandemic, Vaccines 8(2):236 May 2020. Population_Immunity_Due_to_the_Herd_Effect_in_the_COVID-19_Pandemic.

Paital B, Das K, Parida SK, Inter nation social lockdown versus medical care against COVID-19, a mild environmental insight with special reference to India, Science of The Total EnvironmentVolume 728, 1 August 2020, 138914, S0048969720324311

UNICEF, Effects of Social Distancing Measures, magicbox/covid.


Fattah J, Ezzine L, Aman Z, Moussami H E, Forecasting of demand using ARIMA model, International Journal of Engineering Business Management 10(2):184797901880867,October 2018, _ARIMA_model.

Dehesh T, Mardani-Fard H A, Dehesh P, Forecasting of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Different Countries with ARIMA Models, medRxiv (preprint), March 2020,

Dr. Sandip Chatterjee, “COVID-19: Finding the End Day”, AIJR Preprints, 89, version 1, 25-05-2020,